Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.8pts: 93¢ at window start → 92¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 93¢ (band 93¢–97¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.3× this market's 7-day norm, $8.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 6.2:1 ask, $11.8k/$73.4k within 10¢

Book 6.2:1 ask, $11.8k/$73.4k within 10¢ · spread 2.3¢

Triggers (1)

• 31 Aug 2026, 11:28 UTC: Band breach (lower): 93¢ → 92¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.12× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 92¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 92¢, held +0.8ptspts
• Peak move: +0.8pts
• Held 88% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 92¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots