US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 22¢ at window start → 22¢ at close
• BOOK Book 9.6:1 bid, $51.5k/$5.4k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.3× this market's 7-day norm, $37.6k in 24h

Book 9.6:1 bid, $51.5k/$5.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 31 Aug 2026, 03:19 UTC: Band breach (lower): 22¢ → 22¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.03× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 22¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 22¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 22¢
• Graded from 178 snapshots