Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.1pts: 5¢ at window start → 5¢ at close
• VOLUME 8.4× this market's 7-day norm, $5.1k in 24h
• BOOK Book 5.2:1 bid, $860/$166 within 10¢

Book 5.2:1 bid, $860/$166 within 10¢ · spread 1.9¢

Triggers (1)

• 31 Aug 2026, 22:50 UTC: Band breach (upper): 5¢ → 7¢ (+1.4pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.45× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 5¢, drift -1.2pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 5¢, held +0.1ptspts
• Peak move: +1.4pts
• Held 7% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 5¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots