Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 65¢ at window start → 68¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 63¢ (band 59¢–63¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 ask, $25.6k/$29.5k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.3× this market's 7-day norm, $23.9k in 24h

Book 1.1:1 ask, $25.6k/$29.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 31 Aug 2026, 13:05 UTC: Sustained reprice: 65¢ → 69¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.89× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 69¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 69¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 75% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 68¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots