Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 63¢ at window start → 63¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 63¢ (band 59¢–63¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 1.0:1 bid, $20.5k/$20.0k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.5× this market's 7-day norm, $18.7k in 24h

Book 1.0:1 bid, $20.5k/$20.0k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 31 Aug 2026, 02:41 UTC: Band breach (upper): 63¢ → 64¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.22× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 64¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 63¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 63¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots