Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.8pts: 90¢ at window start → 91¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.9:1 bid, $15.3k/$8.0k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.5× this market's 7-day norm, $2.1k in 24h

Book 1.9:1 bid, $15.3k/$8.0k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 31 Aug 2026, 22:56 UTC: Band breach (upper): 90¢ → 91¢ (+1.3pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.3× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 91¢, drift -0.4pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 90¢, held +0.6ptspts
• Peak move: +1.3pts
• Held 58% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 91¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots