OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?
Window 31 Aug 2026, 11:32 UTC → 31 Aug 2026, 13:02 UTC
Price at window start 96¢ → at trigger 97¢ → at close 97¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 17 Sept 2026, 23:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +1.1pts: 96¢ at window start → 97¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 97¢ (band 90¢–97¢)
band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
- BOOK Book 1.2:1 ask, $6.3k/$7.8k within 10¢
- VOLUME 0.1× this market's 7-day norm, $259 in 24h
Book 1.2:1 ask, $6.3k/$7.8k within 10¢ · spread 0.2¢
Triggers (1)
- 31 Aug 2026, 11:32 UTC: Band breach (upper): 96¢ → 97¢ (+1.1pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 97¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 97¢, held +1.1ptspts
- Peak move: +1.1pts
- Held 100% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: no
- Price at close: 97¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots