REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?
Window 31 Aug 2026, 16:05 UTC → 31 Aug 2026, 17:35 UTC
Price at window start 89¢ → at trigger 92¢ → at close 92¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 30 Sept 2026, 03:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +3.5pts: 89¢ at window start → 92¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 92¢ (band 83¢–92¢)
band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
- VOLUME 3.0× this market's 7-day norm, $29.1k in 24h
- BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $10.8k/$15.9k within 10¢
Book 1.5:1 ask, $10.8k/$15.9k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢
Triggers (2)
- 31 Aug 2026, 16:05 UTC: Sustained reprice: 89¢ → 92¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 31 Aug 2026, 17:08 UTC: Band breach (upper): 92¢ → 92¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.32× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 92¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 92¢, held +3.0ptspts
- Peak move: +3.5pts
- Held 100% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: no data
- Price at close: 92¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots