OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?
Window 31 Aug 2026, 11:59 UTC → 31 Aug 2026, 13:29 UTC
Price at window start 92¢ → at trigger 92¢ → at close 92¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 30 Sept 2026, 03:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 92¢ at window start → 92¢ at close
- BOOK Book 1.1:1 ask, $14.6k/$15.8k within 10¢
- VOLUME 1.2× this market's 7-day norm, $11.8k in 24h
Book 1.1:1 ask, $14.6k/$15.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 31 Aug 2026, 11:59 UTC: Band breach (upper): 92¢ → 92¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.05× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 92¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 92¢, held +0.0ptspts
- Peak move: +0.5pts
- Held 0% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 92¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots