OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?
Window 31 Aug 2026, 18:51 UTC → 31 Aug 2026, 20:21 UTC
Price at window start 91¢ → at trigger 93¢ → at close 93¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 30 Sept 2026, 03:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 91¢ at window start → 93¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 92¢ (band 85¢–92¢)
band from 165 hourly obs / 6.9d
- VOLUME 3.7× this market's 7-day norm, $36.0k in 24h
- BOOK Book 3.0:1 bid, $18.1k/$6.0k within 10¢
Book 3.0:1 bid, $18.1k/$6.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 31 Aug 2026, 18:51 UTC: Band breach (upper): 91¢ → 93¢ (+2.0pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.26× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 6 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 93¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 93¢, held +2.0ptspts
- Peak move: +2.0pts
- Held 100% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: no
- Price at close: 93¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots