Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.5pts: 83¢ at window start → 80¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 86¢ (band 86¢–90¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 9.8× this market's 7-day norm, $115.7k in 24h
• BOOK Book 23.3:1 ask, $2.1k/$49.7k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $10.1k, 11.4× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 652 trades / 7d

Book 23.3:1 ask, $2.1k/$49.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 31 Aug 2026, 18:53 UTC: Sustained reprice: 83¢ → 80¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.87× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 12 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 80¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 80¢, held +3.5ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 80¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots