Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 84¢ at window start → 86¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 87¢ (band 87¢–90¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 14.6× this market's 7-day norm, $166.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.6:1 ask, $27.6k/$72.6k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.9k, 2.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 529 trades / 7d

Book 2.6:1 ask, $27.6k/$72.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 31 Aug 2026, 01:55 UTC: Sustained reprice: 84¢ → 87¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 31 Aug 2026, 02:10 UTC: Band breach (lower): 87¢ → 86¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 24 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 87¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 86¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 57% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 86¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots