Iran full airspace closure by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.5pts: 9¢ at window start → 12¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 9¢ (band 5¢–9¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 5.1:1 bid, $6.2k/$1.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $5.0k, 18.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 597 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.1× this market's 7-day norm, $527 in 24h

Book 5.1:1 bid, $6.2k/$1.2k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 31 Aug 2026, 02:14 UTC: Band breach (upper): 9¢ → 10¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.25× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 12 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 10¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 12¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 12¢
• Graded from 172 snapshots