Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 38¢ at window start → 37¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 bid, $2.1k/$1.6k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.7× this market's 7-day norm, $671 in 24h

Book 1.3:1 bid, $2.1k/$1.6k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 31 Aug 2026, 16:33 UTC: Band breach (lower): 38¢ → 37¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.13× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 37¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 37¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 37¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots