Iowa Senate winner?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.5pts: 60¢ at window start → 62¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 60¢ (band 57¢–60¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 ask, $151.6k/$187.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $974, 1.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 347 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.2× this market's 7-day norm, $6.4k in 24h

Book 1.2:1 ask, $151.6k/$187.2k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 31 Aug 2026, 20:49 UTC: Band breach (upper): 60¢ → 62¢ (+2.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.83× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 8 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 62¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 62¢, held +2.5ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 83% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 62¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots