Fed rate hike in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +7.0pts: 67¢ at window start → 74¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 68¢ (band 56¢–68¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.6× this market's 7-day norm, $92.7k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 ask, $18.8k/$20.3k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $6.0k, 5.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 545 trades / 7d

Book 1.1:1 ask, $18.8k/$20.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (4)

• 31 Aug 2026, 12:31 UTC: Band breach (upper): 67¢ → 68¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 31 Aug 2026, 13:54 UTC: Sustained reprice: 68¢ → 74¢ (+6.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 31 Aug 2026, 13:57 UTC: Sustained reprice: 74¢ → 77¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 31 Aug 2026, 14:01 UTC: Sustained reprice: 77¢ → 74¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@DeItaone · X: surfaced 10 min after the break began

🏦 FED RATE HIKE ODDS JUMP Markets now price a 54% chance of a 25bp Fed hike in September, versus 45% for no change, following Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks. Now all eyes turn to Friday’s August jobs report. BofA says weak data could change the picture — otherwise, a September hike looks increasingly likely. https://t.co/3TXWilnZWT

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.09× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 34 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 68¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 68¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +10.0pts
• Held 70% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 74¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots