Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +4.0pts: 57¢ at window start → 62¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 52¢ (band 30¢–52¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 4.4× this market's 7-day norm, $13.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 35.9:1 bid, $25.5k/$710 within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $294, 1.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 638 trades / 7d

Book 35.9:1 bid, $25.5k/$710 within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 31 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC: Sustained reprice: 57¢ → 62¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.19× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 15 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 62¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 62¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 62¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots