OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Kalshi
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Window 31 Aug 2026, 20:20 UTC → 31 Aug 2026, 21:50 UTC
Price at window start 70¢ → at trigger 71¢ → at close 70¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +0.4pts: 70¢ at window start → 70¢ at close
- VOLUME 2.3× this market's 7-day norm, $10.5k in 24h
- BOOK Book 1.0:1 bid, $12.0k/$11.7k within 10¢
Book 1.0:1 bid, $12.0k/$11.7k within 10¢ · spread 0.3¢
Triggers (1)
- 31 Aug 2026, 20:20 UTC: Band breach (upper): 70¢ → 71¢ (+0.8pts), confirmed over 30s
Context artifact
@zerohedge · X: posted 20 min before the break
From Hormuz To Hawks: August Ends With Dollar Down, Stocks & Yields Up, Anti-Fiat Assets Best https://t.co/fuBd41WrQX
View the post
Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.25× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 16 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 71¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 71¢, held +0.8ptspts
- Peak move: +0.8pts
- Held 60% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 70¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots