Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 8¢ at window start → 8¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 8¢ (band 5¢–8¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 8.8× this market's 7-day norm, $60.1k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.8:1 ask, $2.9k/$8.0k within 10¢

Book 2.8:1 ask, $2.9k/$8.0k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 31 Aug 2026, 16:23 UTC: Band breach (upper): 8¢ → 8¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 8¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 8¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 8¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots