Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 5¢ at window start → 6¢ at close
• VOLUME 3.0× this market's 7-day norm, $22.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $3.3k/$4.8k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.8k, 1.7× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 125 trades / 7d

Book 1.5:1 ask, $3.3k/$4.8k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 31 Aug 2026, 22:23 UTC: Band breach (lower): 5¢ → 4¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 4¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 7¢, held -1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 6¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots