Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 47¢ at window start → 49¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 47¢ (band 30¢–47¢)
  band from 162 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.7:1 bid, $187.4k/$107.8k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $10.3k, 3.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 3,065 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $315.3k in 24h

Book 1.7:1 bid, $187.4k/$107.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 30 Aug 2026, 16:56 UTC: Band breach (upper): 47¢ → 48¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.06× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 24 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 48¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 48¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 49¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots