Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 48¢ at window start → 48¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 48¢ (band 31¢–48¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 2.6:1 bid, $8.2k/$3.2k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.4× this market's 7-day norm, $339 in 24h

Book 2.6:1 bid, $8.2k/$3.2k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 30 Aug 2026, 15:57 UTC: Band breach (upper): 48¢ → 48¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.03× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 49¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 49¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 48¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots