Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 44¢ at window start → 47¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 44¢ (band 30¢–44¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 bid, $4.0k/$3.6k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.3× this market's 7-day norm, $400 in 24h

Book 1.1:1 bid, $4.0k/$3.6k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 30 Aug 2026, 03:13 UTC: Band breach (upper): 44¢ → 46¢ (+1.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.11× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 46¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 47¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 47¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots