Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.1pts: 10¢ at window start → 13¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 10¢ (band 7¢–10¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 7.5× this market's 7-day norm, $5.1k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.6:1 bid, $2.1k/$1.3k within 10¢

Book 1.6:1 bid, $2.1k/$1.3k within 10¢ · spread 2.7¢

Triggers (1)

• 30 Aug 2026, 19:36 UTC: Band breach (upper): 10¢ → 14¢ (+4.2pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.4× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 14¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 11¢, held +1.6ptspts
• Peak move: +4.6pts
• Held 67% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 13¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots