Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 31¢ at window start → 32¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 31¢ (band 27¢–31¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 3.8:1 ask, $5.1k/$19.4k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $24.4k in 24h

Book 3.8:1 ask, $5.1k/$19.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 30 Aug 2026, 02:31 UTC: Band breach (upper): 31¢ → 32¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.2× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 15 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 32¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 32¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 32¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots