US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -89.3pts: 90¢ at window start → 0¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 81¢ (band 81¢–90¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 14.5× this market's 7-day norm, $811.1k in 24h
• BOOK Book 24.3:1 ask, $56/$1.4k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $99.0k, 54.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,261 trades / 7d

Book 24.3:1 ask, $56/$1.4k within 10¢ · spread 0.1¢

Triggers (5)

• 30 Aug 2026, 19:14 UTC: Sustained reprice: 90¢ → 85¢ (-4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 30 Aug 2026, 19:17 UTC: Sustained reprice: 85¢ → 43¢ (-42.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 30 Aug 2026, 19:20 UTC: Sustained reprice: 43¢ → 8¢ (-34.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 30 Aug 2026, 19:23 UTC: Band breach (lower): 8¢ → 4¢ (-4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 30 Aug 2026, 19:29 UTC: Sustained reprice: 4¢ → 0¢ (-3.1pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.5× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 360 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 73¢, drift +12.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 0¢, held +89.3ptspts
• Peak move: +89.3pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 0¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots