US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -85.3pts: 86¢ at window start → 0¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 81¢ (band 81¢–90¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 15.0× this market's 7-day norm, $836.8k in 24h

depth $0/$0 within 10¢

Triggers (1)

• 30 Aug 2026, 22:09 UTC: Band breach (lower): 86¢ → 0¢ (-85.3pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 9.48× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +30m: 0¢, held +85.3ptspts
• Peak move: +85.3pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 0¢
• Graded from 17 snapshots