US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.2pts: 60¢ at window start → 59¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 63¢ (band 63¢–77¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 ask, $12.1k/$15.8k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $761, 1.8× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,171 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $58.9k in 24h

Book 1.3:1 ask, $12.1k/$15.8k within 10¢ · spread 0.9¢

Triggers (1)

• 30 Aug 2026, 09:25 UTC: Sustained reprice: 60¢ → 56¢ (-3.3pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.24× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 28 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 56¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 59¢, held +1.1ptspts
• Peak move: +3.4pts
• Held 37% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 59¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots