US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 22¢ at window start → 19¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 23¢ (band 23¢–41¢)
  band from 162 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 3.2:1 bid, $28.9k/$9.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.4k, 1.4× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,897 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.3× this market's 7-day norm, $37.6k in 24h

Book 3.2:1 bid, $28.9k/$9.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 30 Aug 2026, 19:32 UTC: Sustained reprice: 22¢ → 19¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 11 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 19¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 19¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 19¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots