Michigan Senate winner? (Person)

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 38¢ at window start → 37¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 37¢ (band 37¢–41¢)
  band from 162 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 7.5:1 ask, $9.8k/$72.8k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $2.0k in 24h

Book 7.5:1 ask, $9.8k/$72.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 30 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC: Band breach (lower): 38¢ → 37¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 37¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 37¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 37¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots