Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.3pts: 97¢ at window start → 97¢ at close
• VOLUME 10.0× this market's 7-day norm, $210.7k in 24h
• BOOK Book 6.7:1 ask, $21.7k/$146.1k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $3.9k, 6.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 566 trades / 7d

Book 6.7:1 ask, $21.7k/$146.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.4¢

Triggers (4)

• 30 Aug 2026, 21:23 UTC: Band breach (lower): 97¢ → 96¢ (-1.2pts), confirmed over 30s
• 30 Aug 2026, 21:29 UTC: Sustained reprice: 96¢ → 91¢ (-4.8pts), confirmed over 30s
• 30 Aug 2026, 21:35 UTC: Sustained reprice: 91¢ → 94¢ (+3.6pts), confirmed over 30s
• 30 Aug 2026, 22:32 UTC: Sustained reprice: 94¢ → 98¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.4× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 181 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 96¢, drift +0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 94¢, held +2.7ptspts
• Peak move: +6.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 97¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots