Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 90¢ at window start → 91¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 90¢ (band 87¢–90¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.7:1 ask, $95.6k/$164.4k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.7× this market's 7-day norm, $8.4k in 24h

Book 1.7:1 ask, $95.6k/$164.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 30 Aug 2026, 11:28 UTC: Band breach (upper): 90¢ → 91¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 91¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 91¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 91¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots