REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
Window 30 Aug 2026, 19:27 UTC → 30 Aug 2026, 20:57 UTC
Price at window start 91¢ → at trigger 88¢ → at close 83¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 30 Sept 2026, 20:29 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -8.0pts: 91¢ at window start → 83¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 87¢ (band 87¢–90¢)
band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
- VOLUME 9.4× this market's 7-day norm, $106.6k in 24h
- BOOK Book 2.3:1 ask, $10.3k/$24.0k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $5.1k, 5.4× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 329 trades / 7d
Book 2.3:1 ask, $10.3k/$24.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (7)
- 30 Aug 2026, 19:27 UTC: Sustained reprice: 91¢ → 88¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 30 Aug 2026, 19:30 UTC: Sustained reprice: 88¢ → 84¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 30 Aug 2026, 19:33 UTC: Band breach (lower): 84¢ → 85¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 30 Aug 2026, 19:59 UTC: Sustained reprice: 85¢ → 82¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 30 Aug 2026, 20:11 UTC: Sustained reprice: 82¢ → 85¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 30 Aug 2026, 20:26 UTC: Sustained reprice: 85¢ → 80¢ (-5.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 30 Aug 2026, 20:41 UTC: Sustained reprice: 80¢ → 84¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 165 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 80¢, drift +8.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 83¢, held +8.0ptspts
- Peak move: +13.0pts
- Held 62% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
- Gave back half within 60m: no data
- Price at close: 83¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots