Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.5pts: 80¢ at window start → 82¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 87¢ (band 87¢–90¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 13.7× this market's 7-day norm, $156.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 ask, $17.8k/$23.3k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.1k, 1.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 455 trades / 7d

Book 1.3:1 ask, $17.8k/$23.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 30 Aug 2026, 22:07 UTC: Sustained reprice: 80¢ → 77¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 30 Aug 2026, 22:14 UTC: Sustained reprice: 77¢ → 80¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 67 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 80¢, drift -2.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 82¢, held -1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 82¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots