Iran full airspace closure by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +5.0pts: 9¢ at window start → 14¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 9¢ (band 5¢–9¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.4:1 ask, $2.3k/$3.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $860, 3.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 523 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.1× this market's 7-day norm, $527 in 24h

Book 1.4:1 ask, $2.3k/$3.2k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 30 Aug 2026, 20:29 UTC: Band breach (upper): 9¢ → 10¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 30 Aug 2026, 20:57 UTC: Sustained reprice: 10¢ → 13¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 30 Aug 2026, 21:12 UTC: Sustained reprice: 13¢ → 17¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.13× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 179 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 10¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 13¢, held +3.5ptspts
• Peak move: +10.5pts
• Held 48% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 14¢
• Graded from 177 snapshots