Iran full airspace closure by August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.4pts: 4¢ at window start → 2¢ at close
• VOLUME 6.4× this market's 7-day norm, $71.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 4.5:1 ask, $62/$276 within 10¢

Book 4.5:1 ask, $62/$276 within 10¢ · spread 0.2¢

Triggers (1)

• 30 Aug 2026, 23:45 UTC: Band breach (upper): 4¢ → 5¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.18× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 23 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 5¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 5¢, held +0.9ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 2¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots