Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.5pts: 38¢ at window start → 36¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 37¢ (band 37¢–45¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 3.5× this market's 7-day norm, $3.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 bid, $2.1k/$1.8k within 10¢

Book 1.1:1 bid, $2.1k/$1.8k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 30 Aug 2026, 14:58 UTC: Band breach (lower): 38¢ → 37¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.07× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 37¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 36¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 36¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots