Fed rate hike in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 66¢ at window start → 67¢ at close
• VOLUME 1.8× this market's 7-day norm, $37.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 5.4:1 bid, $76.0k/$14.1k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.2k, 1.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 513 trades / 7d

Book 5.4:1 bid, $76.0k/$14.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 30 Aug 2026, 19:57 UTC: Band breach (upper): 66¢ → 67¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 67¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 67¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 67¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots