Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 46¢ at window start → 47¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 46¢ (band 30¢–46¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $17.4k/$26.0k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.3k, 1.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 314 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.2× this market's 7-day norm, $16.6k in 24h

Book 1.5:1 ask, $17.4k/$26.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 30 Aug 2026, 17:01 UTC: Band breach (upper): 46¢ → 47¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.07× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 6 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 47¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 47¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 47¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots