Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.5pts: 7¢ at window start → 9¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 8¢ (band 5¢–8¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 7.8× this market's 7-day norm, $42.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 4.9:1 ask, $2.4k/$11.7k within 10¢

Book 4.9:1 ask, $2.4k/$11.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 30 Aug 2026, 20:32 UTC: Band breach (upper): 7¢ → 9¢ (+1.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.5× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 9¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 8¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 9¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots