Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 74¢ at window start → 75¢ at close
• BOOK Book 2.8:1 ask, $145.1k/$410.1k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $67.6k in 24h

Book 2.8:1 ask, $145.1k/$410.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Aug 2026, 12:08 UTC: Band breach (upper): 74¢ → 75¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.22× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 6 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 75¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 75¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 75¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots