Will Trump be impeached?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 60¢ at window start → 61¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 60¢ (band 56¢–60¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 6.4× this market's 7-day norm, $7.1k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.8:1 bid, $75.4k/$19.9k within 10¢

Book 3.8:1 bid, $75.4k/$19.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Aug 2026, 12:26 UTC: Band breach (upper): 60¢ → 62¢ (+2.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.61× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 60¢, drift -1.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 61¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 61¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots