Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 43¢ at window start → 44¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 43¢ (band 30¢–43¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 6.6× this market's 7-day norm, $2.2M in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.7:1 ask, $140.2k/$242.2k within 10¢

Book 1.7:1 ask, $140.2k/$242.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Aug 2026, 09:22 UTC: Band breach (upper): 43¢ → 44¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 32 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 44¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 43¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 44¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots