Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 47¢ at window start → 48¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 47¢ (band 28¢–47¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.6:1 bid, $32.9k/$21.2k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $14.5k in 24h

Book 1.6:1 bid, $32.9k/$21.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Aug 2026, 14:15 UTC: Band breach (upper): 47¢ → 48¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.03× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 48¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 48¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 48¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots