OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Window 29 Aug 2026, 22:30 UTC → 30 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC
Price at window start 44¢ → at trigger 45¢ → at close 47¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 16 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 44¢ at window start → 47¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 44¢ (band 30¢–44¢)
band from 163 hourly obs / 7.0d
- BOOK Book 2.5:1 bid, $403.3k/$162.2k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $15.5k, 4.7× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 2,933 trades / 7d
- WIRE Wire: @zerohedge T+10m, link confidence 75%: "The Monumental Mistake Of Raising Rates In September https://t.co/ywqTOlSd56"
- VOLUME 1.4× this market's 7-day norm, $484.1k in 24h
Book 2.5:1 bid, $403.3k/$162.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 29 Aug 2026, 22:30 UTC: Band breach (upper): 44¢ → 45¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 14 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 45¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 45¢, held +1.0ptspts
- Peak move: +3.0pts
- Held 100% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: no data
- Price at close: 47¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots