Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 26¢ at window start → 27¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 26¢ (band 23¢–26¢)
  band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 9.7× this market's 7-day norm, $12.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.0:1 ask, $37.7k/$38.7k within 10¢

Book 1.0:1 ask, $37.7k/$38.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Aug 2026, 12:22 UTC: Band breach (upper): 26¢ → 27¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 27¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 27¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 27¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots