Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 44¢ at window start → 44¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 44¢ (band 30¢–44¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.4× this market's 7-day norm, $3.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 5.3:1 ask, $841/$4.4k within 10¢

Book 5.3:1 ask, $841/$4.4k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC: Band breach (upper): 44¢ → 45¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 44¢, drift -1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 44¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 44¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots