Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.5pts: 48¢ at window start → 45¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 36¢ (band 30¢–36¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.9× this market's 7-day norm, $3.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 10.0:1 ask, $581/$5.8k within 10¢

Book 10.0:1 ask, $581/$5.8k within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Aug 2026, 02:52 UTC: Sustained reprice: 48¢ → 45¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.7× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 45¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 45¢, held +3.5ptspts
• Peak move: +4.5pts
• Held 78% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 45¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots