Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 71¢ at window start → 71¢ at close
• BOOK Book 3.8:1 bid, $16.3k/$4.3k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.3× this market's 7-day norm, $1.5k in 24h

Book 3.8:1 bid, $16.3k/$4.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Aug 2026, 20:39 UTC: Band breach (upper): 71¢ → 72¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.09× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 72¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 72¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 71¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots