Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 86¢ at window start → 85¢ at close
• BOOK Book 5.3:1 ask, $7.7k/$41.0k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $3.5k, 10.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 454 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $11.8k in 24h

Book 5.3:1 ask, $7.7k/$41.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Aug 2026, 21:30 UTC: Band breach (lower): 86¢ → 85¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.13× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 85¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 85¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 85¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots